ECHEMI Analysis

This week, the supply-demand contradiction in the acrylonitrile market in China continued, with a loose supply and weak demand leading to a significant price decline. Prices in East China and Shandong have been reduced by 200 CNY/ton. The increase in costs has exacerbated production losses. It is expected that the downward trend in the market may slow down in the short term, but the fundamentals remain weak.

• supply-demand contradiction
• price decline
• inventory pressure
• rising costs

Recently, the quotations for polyethylene have increased, with the average prices of LLDPE, LDPE, and HDPE rising by 335%, 638%, and 233%, respectively Increased maintenance in the supply sector has alleviated short-term pressure, but the end of the peak season for agricultural films has led to a decrease in orders on the demand side

• Polyethylene prices rise
• supply tight
• futures boost
• off-season for demand

This week, the polyester bottle chip market in China first rose and then fell, remaining stable overall The average price in the East China region was 6,075 CNY/ton The cost of raw materials fluctuated, putting pressure on processing fees On the supply side, the operating rate slightly increased, with production at about 335,700 tons, and inventory levels were moderate On the demand side, purchases were mainly for restocking, with downstream beverage companies having sufficient stock

• Polyester bottle chips
• Market conditions
• Supply and demand analysis
• Impact of cost factors

This week, the styrene market prices in China saw a slight increase, rising from an average of 6,792 CNY/ton at the beginning of the week to 6,850 CNY/ton by the end of the week, with a price increase of 0.85%.

• Styrene Market
• Price Increase
• Weekly Analysis
• Chemical Products

In 2025, the price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and declined due to cost reductions, oversupply, and weak demand, with the annual average price reaching a three-year low. In 2026, it is expected that cost support will strengthen, supply will decrease, and demand will recover, leading to a stronger initial phase followed by stabilization in the price of phthalic anhydride.

• Phthalic anhydride market conditions: cost-driven
• oversupply
• weak demand

This week, the market price of Aniline in China rose significantly, from 7,945 CNY/ton to 8,145 CNY/ton, an increase of 2.52%. The market was boosted by the rise in crude oil prices, with downstream buyers actively restocking. On Friday, manufacturers collectively raised prices by 200 CNY/ton. The pure benzene market showed weak fluctuations, and it is expected that the Aniline market in China will consolidate after the recent increase in the short term.

• Aniline market
• price increase
• crude oil impact
• low inventory pressure

This week, the price of activated carbon in China rose from 12,800 CNY/ton to 12,833 CNY/ton, a price increase of 0.26%. The demand for coconut shell activated carbon is strong, and due to supply shortages and increased costs, it is expected that prices will continue to fluctuate at high levels in the short term.

• Activated carbon prices
• coconut shell activated carbon
• rising costs
• high-level fluctuating trend

As of January 9, 2025, the price of n-butanol in the Shandong region of China has been adjusted to 5766 CNY/ton, an increase of 2.37% from the beginning of the month. This week, the market first stabilized and then rose, with reduced supply and increased costs driving up prices. It is expected that in the short term, prices will fluctuate at a high level within the range of 5750-5900 CNY/ton.

• n-Butanol market
• price increase
• tightening supply
• cost support

From January 4th to 9th, the BDO price in China remained at 7,357 CNY/ton, stable on a week-on-week basis but down by 13.15% year-on-year. On the supply side, some facilities were shut down for maintenance, reducing the supply and supporting the market. The cost was affected by the rise in calcium carbide prices and the decline in methanol prices, while demand was mixed. It is expected that both supply and demand will increase in the future, and the market trend is likely to move upward.

• BDO market
• supply-side impact
• cost-side analysis
• demand-side changes

From January 4 to 9, the price of ethanol in China rose to 5,430 CNY per ton, an increase of 1.35% week-over-week and 4.43% year-over-year. The rise in corn prices is beneficial for ethanol cost, but the supply side is slightly negative due to some facilities reducing production or shutting down; the demand side is slightly positive due to a small increase in the capacity utilization rate of ethyl acetate. It is expected that the short-term ethanol market will experience minor fluctuations.

• Ethanol market conditions
• favorable cost factors
• supply-side is bearish
• demand is improving

From January 4th to 9th, the price of methanol in the East China port of the Chinese market increased from 2,245 CNY/ton to 2,265 CNY/ton, a price increase of 0.93%. Due to reduced imports, international conditions, and support from downstream demand, the main futures contract for methanol closed at 2,273 CNY/ton, an increase of 1.34%. It is predicted that supply contraction will likely push prices higher in the future.

• Methanol Market
• Price Fluctuations
• Supply-Demand Relationship
• Futures Trends

From January 4th to 9th, the price of MTBE decreased from 4,853 CNY/ton to 4,783 CNY/ton, a price decrease of 1.44%. The Chinese MTBE market has been fluctuating downward, with weak demand and a decline in international crude oil prices putting pressure on the market. It is expected that the MTBE market will continue to be dominated by weak consolidation in the future.

• MTBE market
• price decline
• weak demand
• supply pressure

As of January 5th, the price of phthalic anhydride in China has stopped falling and increased to 6,000 CNY/ton, with a price increase of 8.43%. The rise in ortho-xylene prices by 7.02% led to an increase in the cost of phthalic anhydride. Additionally, with the operating rate dropping to 65%, supply has tightened. Although the support from DOP demand has weakened, it is still expected that the price of phthalic anhydride will continue to rise strongly in the future.

• Rising costs
• tightening supply
• phthalic anhydride prices
• weakening demand for DOP

After the holiday, the melamine market supply benefits have faded, and prices have stabilized The recovery of supply has led to the dissipation of previous expectations of tight supply, but demand recovery is slow, and downstream purchasing remains cautious Urea cost support is limited In the short term, the market will continue to experience a range-bound fluctuation pattern under a weak supply-demand balance

• Melamine Market: Supply-side support wanes
• prices remain stable for now
• supply and demand in a tug-of-war.

In 2025, the average market price of ammonium sulfate in China increased by 2661%, with a trend that first rose and then declined, ultimately ending on an upward trend It is expected that the market outlook for 2026 will remain optimistic, with exports continuing to be the core driver of growth Production capacity will continue to grow, but at a slower pace, and leading companies will further expand their advantages

• Ammonium sulfate market
• export growth
• agricultural demand
• expanding industrial applications

In 2025, the Chinese acrylonitrile market experienced a surplus due to a surge in production capacity, leading to a significant drop in prices It is expected that the oversupply pressure will continue in 2026, with prices remaining low and fluctuating, as the industry enters a period of consolidation Carbon fiber and exports are expected to alleviate some of the excess, but caution is still needed regarding cost line competition

• Acrylonitrile market
• supply and demand imbalance
• price decline
• industry reshuffle

In 2025, the supply and demand imbalance of polyethylene led to a fluctuating downward trend in prices, reaching the lowest point of the year by the end. In 2026, with approximately 6,150,000 tons of new capacity added, the oversupply situation will worsen, while demand growth remains weak. Exports become the key pressure relief valve. Cost support is fragile, and the industry is accelerating its transformation. Attention should be paid to the release of new capacities and crude oil prices.

• Polyethylene supply and demand imbalance
• overcapacity
• weakening cost support
• industry transformation

In 2025, natural rubber prices experienced volatile downward trends, with annual fluctuations ranging from 13,550 to 17,400 CNY per ton. Global supply growth remained sluggish, while China’s import dependency remained high. Demand was primarily driven by the Chinese automotive market and tire exports. In 2026, supply is expected to contract over the long term, while domestic demand will continue to grow steadily, causing prices to fluctuate between 14,000 and 18,000 CNY per ton.

• Natural rubber prices
• supply and demand
• market outlook
• impact on the tire industry

In 2025, China’s EVA market experienced fluctuating price declines due to expanded production capacity and volatile demand. In 2026, oversupply is expected to intensify, with new production capacity reaching approximately 1.69 million tons per year. While demand from the photovoltaic sector will remain dominant, its growth rate is expected to slow down. Costs are forecast to stabilize initially before weakening gradually, resulting in overall prices remaining low and fluctuating.

• EVA market
• capacity expansion
• demand fluctuations
• weakening cost support

In 2025, the Chinese dichloromethane market fell into a dilemma of high supply, weak demand, and low profit, with prices plummeting significantly. In 2026, the market will continue to maintain a weak tone, characterized by optimized supply structure, intensified demand differentiation, and reshaped cost transmission, presenting a scenario of "change within weakness and intensified differentiation." Industry concentration will increase, and structural opportunities will replace overall growth.

• Dichloromethane Market
• Supply-Demand Imbalance
• Cost Transmission
• Industry Adjustment